Predictions by the famous octopus named Paul got a lot of attention in previous editions of the FIFA World Cup, but in the current era of artificial intelligence and machine learning, the process of predicting the winner of the World Cup has become more advanced and scientific. Achim Zeilis, professor of statistics at the University of Innsbruck, used a machine learning algorithm that drew on data, expert knowledge and statistical models to name the potential winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the biggest ever. According to his latest analysis, Spain, not reigning champions Argentina, is the main contender to win the upcoming World Cup.
As Professor Zeilis points out in The Independent, his algorithm works in two distinct stages. The first phase combines various complex statistical models as well as the opinions of bookmakers and transfer market experts to determine the strength of all teams and players participating in the competition. In the second stage, this machine learning algorithm makes the final decision about how to combine the information related to the team’s strength estimates.
The team of researchers ran the simulation, or experiment, about 100,000 times to determine the likely movements of the competition. According to the results, Spain topped the list with a 14.5 percent chance of winning. England and France are joint second with 12.4 percent of opportunities, followed by Germany with 11.2 percent. The chances of Portugal and Argentina winning the title are 8.9 percent and 8.2 percent respectively.
As Zeilis points out, his algorithm focuses primarily on four variables or factors for precise analysis. First, an estimate of the teams’ past strength based on the results of all international matches over the last eight years. Secondly, the future strength is estimated from the opinion of various international bookmakers about the upcoming tournament.
Thirdly, individual ratings of players are created based on their contribution to goal scoring at club and national level. Finally, the current quality and future potential of players is reflected through their expected market value. The data was collected from the TransferMarket website, which uses a public collective opinion method to determine the actual market value.
Football fans around the world are now focused on the main venue for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It will be clear after the tournament how well this state-of-the-art scientific prediction of the technology actually works and whether Spain will indeed win the title.